Friday, January 9, 2009

The Inconvenient Truth Freezes Up

What the Earth naturally does every 10,000 interglacial years is not up to us...
At this rate we will be in an ice age within 5 decades.

March 20, 2007

The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel anticipates the solar minimum marking the onset of Cycle 24 will occur in March, 2008 (±6 months).

The "new" cycle was predicated on the "low ebb," meaning the upswing was predicted to be coming. But it seems it was not to be, not then, anyway:

"Cycle 24 remains late. There was one sunspot of high latitude and reversed magnetic polarity on January 4th, 2008, but none have been seen since."

The previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000-2002 with many furious solar storms. That cycle decayed as usual to the present quiet leaving solar physicists little to do other than wonder, when would the next cycle begin?

It actually started four months later than (+6 months):
Jan. 10, 2008: Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun. Solar activity waxes and wanes in 11-year cycles. Lately, we've been experiencing the low ebb, "very few flares, sunspots, or activity of any kind," says Hathaway. "Solar minimum is upon us."

Solar minimum means colder temperatures, generally, but as we are about to experience, something else will be worse than a late solar cycle.

On National Public Radio International, I heard an "environmental artist" say--correctly--that we don't have global warming, that, instead, some places are warming, some are getting colder. Some places are getting hotter, and some are becoming wetter, some dryer. The Arctic may be melting, but recorded Antarctica had 17 inches more ice than at any time since that continent's discovery, and there may be more since I read that report.

From China to Colorado the winter of '07-'08 was the hardest on record. Lower temperatures had never been recorded in China; snow was still on the mountain peaks of Colorado in June. Fires in California, at an all-time high, are fanned by hurricane-strength Santa Anna winds.

Czech President Vaclav Klaus, the European Union's current president, has called global warming a "myth" and Al Gore an "apostle of arrogance."

And now, the winter of 2008/09 has already turned out to be the coldest in more than a decade, and record amounts of snow are piling up in the Pacific Northwest. Parts of Washington, which normally see an average of 16 inches of snow all winter, have already had more than 73 inches.

The "inconvenient truth" Al Gore wanted us to believe, which some people still believe, in spite of the mounting evidence of record low temps, and in spite of science that says those carbons and other pollutants in the atmosphere are keeping out the sun rather than trapping it inside, must be his worst nightmare: the hell he predicted is not going to burn us after all. It may freeze some of us. We may be in a minor ice age even as I write.

"Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the day, the real danger facing humanity is not global warming, but more likely the coming of a new Ice Age," says the website Winningreen. "What we live in now is known as an interglacial, a relatively brief period between long ice ages. Unfortunately for us, most interglacial periods last only about ten thousand years, and that is how long it has been since the last Ice Age ended."

While many more of us may be inundated by record low temps and record amounts of snow, and while all of this is leading to unprecetended flooding in places that otherwise would not see flooding so severely--or at all--the fact is that weather patterns are shifting.

This is a map of the "Ocean thermohaline conveyor system that transports warm, salty waters into the North Atlantic, tempering the climate of Northern Europe. If the conveyor should collapse on its return loop near Greenland and Iceland, Britain's climate could resemble Labrador."

"Now that the 1998 El Nino is disappearing off the 10 year scale, things are looking a bit different," says the website Alex Jones' Prison Planet. "Annual North American temperature since 1998 (11 years of data) is falling over the period at a rate of 0.78(F)/decade or 7.8(F)per century. At this rate we will be in an ice age within 5 decades." [emphasis added]

This blog essay is not intended to frighten anyone. What the Earth naturally does every 10,000 is not up to us until we learn to control the Earth to that degree. Al Gore did intend to frighten us, but with the rapidly falling rate of some pollutants even man is not doing enough to harm the environment to the point that he could cause a new global ice age.

El Nino has an 11 year cycle. The solar flares have an 11 year cycle, and the two don't seem to correspond, unless as with all bodies of water it simply takes that long between the ebbing of a solar cycle for the El Nino cycle to ebb.

The 10,000 year cycle of the interglacial period may end within our lifetimes. Civiliations in the northern hemispheres could be pushed into migration toward warmer climates. Africans were pushed back from Europe three times by glacial periods before they finally managed to populate that northern continent.

Al Gore did actually say he "invented" the Internet; but we all knew that what he meant was that he created the legislation that allowed civilians to use it. He did not invent the scare-mongering tactics that led to his Academy Award and his Nobel Prize.

I think "the apostle of arragance" should give them both back, and start looking for "green" methods of saving the planet from nature's coming ice age.

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